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From CIVA Comes — EpiCast
EpiCast was developed by Tim Germann at Los Alamos National Laboratory, specifically to predict the spread of the plague and the so-called "Avian flu" throughout the U.S. Dr. Germann developed the software based on several breakthrough research studies on epidemiological modeling. About the Inventor — Timothy C. Germann, Ph.D:
A Technical Staff Member in the Applied Science & Methods Development Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), he received B.S. degrees in Computer Science and Chemistry from the University of Illinois in 1991 and a Ph.D. in Chemical Physics from Harvard University in 1995 (supported by a DOE Computational Science Graduate Fellowship). Following a Research Fellowship in the Miller Institute for Basic Research in Science at U.C. Berkeley, where he developed parallel computer algorithms for quantum mechanical reactive molecular scattering calculations, Tim joined LANL in 1997.
At LANL, his main research focus has involved using large-scale classical molecular dynamics simulations to investigate shock, friction, detonation, and other materials dynamics issues. More recently, he has led the development of EpiCast, a large-scale epidemiological simulation model and applied it to assess mitigation strategies for outbreaks of either naturally emerging or intentionally released infectious diseases including influenza, smallpox, and pneumonic plague. He was a member of the 1998 IEEE Gordon Bell Price/Performance prize-winning team for the LANL "Avalon" Linux/Alpha cluster, leader of a 2005 IEEE Gordon Bell Performance prize finalist for 44 Tflop/s multibillion-atom molecular dynamics simulations on the IBM/LLNL BlueGene/L supercomputer, and has co-authored over 80 scientific publications. The Wave of the Future
EpiCast provides unique predictive capabilities into how an epidemic is spread throughout a population at the granularity level of individuals. EpiCast has the additional advantages of being peer validated (DOE/NNSA and the National Academy of Sciences), flexible with regard to data type and input methods, and adaptable to other virulent and seemingly random processes including other disease types, social epidemics, adoption behavior, and trends in human interaction (such as purchasing patterns).
EpiCast is unique in its global forecasting ability of Avian Flu:
Although modeling the spread of Avian Flu for industry and foreign governments is a substantial business on its own, CIVA’s ability to further develop EpiCast into a tool useful for the other applications described above is unique within industry. CIVA’s commitment to making EpiCast the global hallmark product for influenza prediction is certain. CIVA’s other pending products include SOA-compliant web services for data access and analysis, user tools for information visualization that operate within standard MSFT Office-style productivity packages, on-demand thematic mapping, and enterprise consulting services to insure institutional adoption of planning and readiness in anticipation of business disruptions— planning not found in corporations today. |